Agenda

Now in its 13th consecutive year, Oakley Greenwood’s gas market analysis masterclass provides an intensive examination of the forces reshaping Australia’s gas market. The program will explore supply and demand outlooks, new market modelling, pricing trends, regulatory developments and electrification assumptions, including the impacts of data centres and electric vehicles. It will also assess legacy coal generation and gas-powered generation, proposed LNG import terminals, biomethane and other renewable gas developments, and related national policy changes. Surprise guest speakers will contribute additional perspectives throughout the day.
 
Who should attend: This masterclass is designed for gas producers, retailers, pipeline and infrastructure operators, major energy users, investors, advisers, policymakers and other professionals whose decisions are affected by Australia’s evolving gas market. It will be particularly valuable for those working in strategy, commercial development, investment, regulation, risk, procurement or energy transition planning who need a practical, data-driven view of future prices, supply security and decarbonisation impacts.
 
Key learning outcomes:

• Analyse domestic gas prices, demand trends, supply options and infrastructure constraints

• Assess how policy reforms and decarbonisation targets affect strategy and investment

• Apply LNG pricing and energy-transition trends to commercial and risk decisions

Australia’s domestic gas sector faces an increasingly complex social licence challenge as producers, pipeline operators and governments seek to develop new supply and infrastructure while responding to community, Traditional Owner, environmental and investor concerns. Using practical reference points, this masterclass will examine how cultural heritage, consent, groundwater protection, land access, pipeline development, project economics and the domestic-versus-export debate shape public trust and project delivery. Participants will explore how these issues affect approvals, native title processes, investment decisions, regulatory scrutiny and corporate reputation, and will develop practical approaches for communicating contested gas-market issues, engaging stakeholders early and building credible benefit-sharing and risk-management strategies.

Who should attend: This masterclass is designed for gas producers and explorers, LNG and domestic gas suppliers, pipeline and midstream operators, project developers, energy retailers, investors, government representatives, regulators and advisers working across approvals, native title, land access, environment, water, corporate affairs and community engagement. It will be particularly valuable for leaders responsible for projects in contested regions, including those managing Traditional Owner relationships, pastoral and agricultural impacts, environmental assessments, infrastructure corridors, domestic supply commitments, investor scrutiny and reputational risk.

Key learning outcomes:

•  Assess how Traditional Owner consent, native title, cultural heritage and land-access issues can affect gas exploration, production and pipeline projects

• Understand how groundwater, agricultural land, cumulative industrial impacts and the federal water trigger shape community confidence and regulatory risk

• Analyse competing narratives around domestic energy security, gas prices, regional benefits, LNG exports and stranded-asset risk

• Apply lessons from existing projects to stakeholder mapping, early engagement, benefit sharing, issue response and project communications

• Develop credible messages and engagement plans for regulators, investors, landholders, Traditional Owners, local communities and gas customers
  

• How has Chevron managed to grow domestic supply while also exporting LNG? (Chevron claims Gorgon and Wheatstone supply about 40% of Western Australia's domestic gas market.)
• Navigating competing policy objectives
• Supporting renewables with firming fuel
• Maintaining investment attractiveness while meeting domestic needs
  

• Managing the gas reservation surplus to ensure redirected LNG volumes can be absorbed by domestic customers
• Balancing reservation requirements with investment certainty to sustain new supply, infrastructure and storage development
• Preparing for post-reservation tightening as southern production declines and domestic demand for reliable gas increases
  

• What are the largest gas user needs that are shaping supply and investment in the domestic market?
• What are the biggest risks and opportunities for producers, users and investors as supply and investment patterns change?
• How will the gas sector find new sources of supply as legacy basins decline?
  

• Managing gas-powered-generation alongside renewables to maintain reliability through periods of peak and variable demand, emphasising the role of gas as a back-up to renewables as a firm and flexible generation
• Planning gas supply around evolving electricity demand to give generators greater confidence to invest
• Coordinating gas and electricity markets to strengthen system security as the two become increasingly interconnected

• Which emerging industries, projects and customer segments offer the greatest potential for new gas demand, including manufacturing, minerals processing, industrial precincts and other energy-intensive industries?
• What do industrial and commercial users need in terms of affordability, price certainty, supply reliability and contract flexibility to invest in new gas-dependent operations or expand existing ones?
• How can producers, distributors and major energy users collaborate to develop viable supply arrangements, connect prospective customers and convert emerging opportunities into sustained gas demand?
• What commercial conditions, policy settings and investment signals are needed to unlock long-term gas demand while keeping Australian businesses competitive against alternative energy sources?

• Balancing producer costs and customer affordability to establish sustainable gas pricing
• Aligning contract terms and flexibility to manage changing volumes, prices and supply risk
• Sharing the costs of new supply to support investment while maintaining customer competitiveness
• Structuring commercial arrangements to give buyers certainty while preserving incentives for producers to invest

• Managing gas procurement uncertainty to secure affordable and reliable supply amid changing reservation rules and market conditions
• Balancing contracted volumes with operational flexibility to match gas purchases with seasonal, industrial and generation demand
• Navigating infrastructure and capacity constraints to access supply, storage and transport when and where customers need it
• Preparing for policy-driven market changes to protect competitiveness, investment and long-term business certainty

• Unlocking emerging gas resources while addressing environmental, community and infrastructure expectations
• Developing the infrastructure and commercial pathways needed to connect new supply with established demand centres
• Creating commercially viable projects that manage execution risk, provide market certainty and compete for capital in a changing investment environment

• What infrastructure is needed to connect new northern resources with east coast demand centres?
• Which pipelines, LNG infrastructure and alternative transport options could best expand supply pathways?
• How can infrastructure investment be aligned with emerging supply and demand to avoid bottlenecks and stranded assets?
• What regulatory and commercial barriers need to be addressed to accelerate new supply connections?

The official ADGO dinner is the perfect opportunity to network, unwind and socialise with industry peers during your time in Sydney. Tickets are $230 - Includes drinks and dinner.

Venue: TBC

• What skills and capabilities will the gas sector need as its operations, technologies and workforce requirements evolve?
• How can gas companies attract scarce technical and engineering talent without simply competing with other energy sectors?
• What can industry do to develop and retain skilled workers in regional and project-based locations?
• How can government, industry and education providers build the pipeline of workers needed to support future gas supply and infrastructure investment?

• Publishing clear guidance on the methodology, processes and expectations before obligations take effect
• Consulting with affected parties and testing implementation arrangements against real-world market conditions
• Applying the framework
• consistently while responding to material changes in supply, demand and infrastructure
• Maintaining independence, transparency and accountability as the AER takes on its expanded role in the domestic gas market 

• Testing whether domestic reservation can materially improve customer affordability, and under what market conditions, drawing on Australian and international experience
• Assessing the impacts of reservation and regulatory settings on production, contracting and future investment, including whether they create unintended constraints on new supply
• Creating greater certainty across exploration, production, processing and approvals to give investors clearer signals while maintaining environmental and community safeguards

• Designing emissions policy that drives investment and measurable emissions reductions without discouraging new gas supply or industrial activity
• Recognising different decarbonisation pathways and starting points across producers, processors and industrial users
• Balancing emissions-reduction incentives with the need to protect the competitiveness of internationally exposed industries

• Rebuilding investor confidence through stable policy settings, credible long-term demand signals and greater certainty around future market conditions
• Developing financing and commercial structures that reflect changing investor expectations around emissions, the energy transition and project risk
• Creating investable pathways for new gas projects to secure capital and deliver supply as legacy basins decline

• Where can gas users, producers and distributors realistically reduce emissions while maintaining supply, reliability and competitiveness?
• Which decarbonisation solutions are commercially scalable, and where do renewable gas, CCS, efficiency and other pathways make the most sense across the value chain?
• How should producers, distributors and users share the costs, risks and infrastructure requirements of decarbonisation?

• Planning for rapid growth in electricity demand from AI and data centres, and understanding what it means for generation, network capacity and system reliability
• Coordinating gas, electricity and infrastructure investment to meet the requirements of new high-load customers without creating bottlenecks or reliability gaps
• Assessing whether emerging demand could materially reshape future gas requirements, particularly through its implications for firming capacity, peak demand and system flexibility

• Navigating declining domestic gas demand to optimise asset utilisation, contract portfolios and long-term investment returns
• Repositioning gas infrastructure and market frameworks to maintain system reliability while supporting an orderly energy transition
• Identifying the industrial sectors, generation requirements and emerging opportunities that will sustain demand and underpin future gas investment decisions

• Strengthening Australia’s resilience to global gas and LNG market disruptions and geopolitical shocks
• Diversifying supply relationships, infrastructure and market exposure to reduce vulnerability to external disruptions
• Leveraging Australia’s position as a major LNG exporter to strengthen domestic energy security and regional supply relationships

• Comparing the technical, commercial and infrastructure requirements of different decarbonisation options
• Exploring where renewable gas and CCS can deliver practical emissions reductions, and where other approaches may be more viable
• Examining the costs, scalability and reliability of different pathways for producers, networks and industrial users
• Considering what market, policy and investment settings are needed to bring viable solutions to scale
• Understanding what customers need from decarbonisation solutions and where collaboration across the value chain can unlock deployment

• Translating the legislation into clear operational requirements for producers, exporters, infrastructure operators and buyers
• Establishing processes for annual obligations, reporting and compliance
• Providing regulatory guidance that balances domestic supply security with investment certainty

• Options for determining which exporters, projects and supply arrangements should fall within the scheme
• How national and WA policy settings might interact without creating unnecessary duplication or gaps
• Ways regional market conditions, including those in the Northern Territory, could be recognised in the scheme’s coverage

• How different demand forecasts and market scenarios could inform a proportionate annual supply requirement
• Options for setting a buffer that may improve security while remaining responsive to changing market conditions
• The role ministerial discretion could play in managing unexpected conditions without undermining investment certainty

• Principles that could distinguish genuinely committed supply from arrangements that should remain subject to reservation
• How renewals and extensions might be treated to balance contractual continuity with domestic supply objectives
• Approaches to changes in volumes, terms or counterparties that may preserve flexibility without creating avoidance risks

• Ways of defining “own gas” that could reflect different project, joint-venture and marketing structures
• Options for establishing a baseline that may distinguish existing production from additional supply
• Evidence and assurance approaches that could support consistent decisions without imposing disproportionate administrative burdens

• How pipeline, processing and storage constraints could be reflected when assessing practical deliverability
• Possible buyer-availability tests that may distinguish a supply shortfall from gas that cannot be commercially placed
• Carry-forward or alternative compliance mechanisms that could manage deferred volumes without weakening supply incentives

• Market and allocation approaches that could make reserved gas more accessible to a wider range of domestic buyers
• Contract structures and information settings that may improve supply visibility while accommodating buyer and producer needs
• How implementation choices could influence competition, contracting behaviour and affordability across the domestic market

• Reporting models that could give the regulator sufficient visibility while keeping compliance obligations proportionate
• Verification and assurance approaches that may identify material risks without creating unnecessary process
• How levies, penalties and other enforcement tools could encourage compliance while recognising genuine delivery constraints