By Kirstin Crothers

For senior participants in the east coast gas market, the debate is no longer whether there is a supply challenge – it is what is realistically achievable in the next 5–10 years, what remains aspirational, and which policy settings will determine price and contract outcomes.

Forecast structural shortfalls in southern states are colliding with declining legacy production, winter peak volatility, and a power system increasingly reliant on firming. The conversation has shifted from export parity and reservation to harder questions: where will the next tranche of domestic molecules come from, how will they reach load centres, and under what commercial terms?

What follows is a cross-section of industry views – not always aligned – on what will actually keep the lights on.

Unlocking new gas supply

The starting point is upstream. Decline curves in mature basins are well understood. The more contentious question is which new supply sources are genuinely bankable in a tight timeframe.

Xingjin Wang, Executive Chairman, Denison Gas, argues that the answer lies in stepping beyond mature coal seam gas. “Overcoming the 5–10 year supply shortfall demands a policy shift that prioritises sustained exploration investment,” he says. As CSG production matures, “tight sandstone gas in the Bowen–Surat Basin emerges as the critical next-stage resource.”

However, Wang is clear that this resource is not self-executing. “Currently, development is stalled by high geological risk and marginal commercial returns.” In his view, unlocking this tranche requires “a framework that de-risks exploration, enhances commercial economics, and incentivises technological breakthroughs.” He points to Denison’s work in the Denison Trough as “the industry blueprint for navigating this transition.”

The implicit tension is clear: without improved risk-sharing or fiscal settings, capital will continue to favour lower-risk jurisdictions or brownfield expansions. Yet shifting policy settings to favour higher-risk tight gas development risks being politically fraught.

Further north, Todd Abbott, Chief Executive Officer, Tamboran Resources, is unequivocal about the scale opportunity in the Northern Territory. “The solution to energy affordability and security for Australia is gas from the Beetaloo Basin.” Abbott says, “This year we will see the first gas flowing from the Beetaloo into the Northern Territory market and the East Coast is next.”

 “supply will help not just domestic customers, but support manufacturers too” 

For Abbott, timing is critical: “The gas is there and the timing of our development hits when it is needed.” He argues this supply “will help not just domestic customers, but we can step in to support manufacturers too.”

But here too, upstream success depends on policy and infrastructure alignment. “What we need now is a stable policy environment that gives investment confidence,” Abbott says, adding that “Nation building infrastructure should be prioritised for Northern Australia to connect the Beetaloo to the East Coast.” He frames this as both an energy security and regional development play, noting it “will also help drive positive economic opportunities in the Northern Territory, especially for Native Titles Holders from the Beetaloo area.”

The debate between proponents of southern basin acceleration and northern basin scale is unlikely to abate. The practical question for buyers is which volumes will be firm, financed and delivered inside the next contracting cycle.

Infrastructure and market access constraints

Even where supply exists, it is not always where it is needed.

Rob Wheals, Chief Executive Officer, Squadron Energy, puts the bottleneck starkly: “The number one issue we need to solve is how to get gas to NSW and Victoria to meet peak-day shortfalls, which are becoming more frequent, as well as address the forecast long-term structural market shortfalls.”

For Wheals, policy interventions that focus purely on reservation or diversion risk missing the operational reality. “Without new delivery pathways, any policy – including gas reservation – risks repeating this mistake by reserving gas that cannot physically reach southern customers during winter peaks.”

His solution centres on import terminals. “Gas terminals act as a virtual pipeline, allowing domestic gas to flow to southern demand centres cheaply and efficiently, while also providing flexible, storage-like capability that can respond quickly to cold snaps, generator outages and short, sharp demand spikes.”

Critics argue that terminals may entrench LNG-linked pricing rather than reduce it. Proponents counter that flexibility and peak-day security have value in their own right, particularly as coal exits the power mix.

“the decisions pipeline operators are making today, will directly impact whether the lights stay on tomorrow”

From the pipeline perspective, Nerise Cook, Executive General Manager, Gas Networks, Jemena, cautions against seeing infrastructure as passive. “While new supply-side solutions are key to solving Australia's east coast gas crunch, they are just one part of the equation.” She notes that “the decisions pipeline operators are making today, will directly impact whether the lights stay on tomorrow.”

Cook argues there is “no single solution,” but that the sector must ensure “existing assets can be used more flexibly, being open to new technologies, leveraging the storage capabilities of Australia's gas infrastructure, and working closely with gas producers and shippers.” Her warning is implicit: infrastructure investment signals are shaped by regulatory settings, and misalignment risks under-building or mis-building.

The infrastructure debate, then, is not simply about new steel in the ground, but about contract structures, access regimes and the commercial signals embedded in the regulatory framework.

Policy stability and regulatory reform

If there is one theme that unites upstream, midstream and market participants, it is frustration with policy volatility.

“the critical role of gas in keeping the lights on will only increase” 

Jane Norman, CEO and Managing Director, Amplitude Energy, links gas directly to system reliability. “The role of gas is increasingly being recognised as the uninterruptable power supply needed to support the energy transition.” With electricity demand growing through “data centres, household electrification and electric vehicles,” she argues “the critical role of gas in keeping the lights on will only increase.”

Norman is explicit about what unlocks near-term supply: “Additional volumes of gas are needed from projects close to demand centres and existing infrastructure, as this is the lowest cost gas supply to meet customers’ needs.” However, she stresses that “Policy stability and efficient regulatory processes will be critical to unlocking further supply.”

Brett Woods, MD and CEO, Beach, similarly sees the Federal Government’s review processes as pivotal. “The cheapest gas will always be that which is produced closest to where it is used,” he says, arguing that the Federal Gas Market Review “creates a much-needed opportunity to speed up exploration and permitting in the southern basins to supply the nearby East Coast market.”

“carbon-neutral LNG will unlikely command a premium unless buyers face reputational pressure or binding emissions compliance””

“Woods injects a note of caution into the north-versus-south debate. “There is a lot of focus on supply from the north but there are also significant infrastructure transport capacity constraints.” For manufacturers, he notes, “Manufacturers prefer a consistent, stable supply,” and therefore “additional domestic supply by LNG producers to meet that need must be supplied firm and flat across a gas year to avoid disincentivising domestic only suppliers.”

He concludes that “policy settings that support domestic focussed producers, such as Beach… must be a key outcome of the review.”

This is where mild controversy emerges. Some argue that stronger reservation mechanisms are necessary to protect domestic users. Others contend that poorly calibrated interventions risk deterring precisely the investment needed to expand supply. The outcome will shape not only spot prices, but the tenor and firmness of long-term contracts.

Gas as a pillar of energy security and affordability

The unifying thread across these perspectives is that gas remains central to system reliability over the next decade.

 “gas as the uninterruptable power supply” 

Norman’s framing of gas as “the uninterruptable power supply” for the transition captures the reality facing system operators as renewables scale and dispatchable coal exits. Peak-day gas demand is increasingly tied to electricity volatility, not just industrial load.

Abbott positions Beetaloo gas as “the solution to energy affordability and security,” while Wang emphasises the need to “prioritise sustained exploration investment” to avoid structural deficits. Wheals focuses on ensuring molecules can physically reach southern markets when needed. Cook highlights that infrastructure flexibility decisions made today determine tomorrow’s resilience.

The differences lie less in whether gas is needed, and more in where supply should be sourced, how it should be transported, and what policy architecture will best balance investor confidence with consumer protection.

For senior professionals navigating the next contracting cycle, the practical implications are clear. Near-term price trajectories will hinge on whether southern basin permitting accelerates, whether northern infrastructure is financed, whether terminals proceed, and how firmly government settings support domestic-focussed production.

What will keep the lights on in the next 5–10 years is unlikely to be a single silver bullet. It will be a combination of incremental southern supply, selective northern scale, smarter use of existing pipelines and storage, and – perhaps most critically – a policy framework stable enough to convert resources into bankable, deliverable domestic gas.

In that respect, the crunch is as much about governance as geology.